fear & loathing in Lotusland

Category: The Record

Ghost Capital

by Zbigniew

“Henry Pryor, a property buying agent, says the London luxury new-build market is ‘already overstuffed but we’re just building more of them’.

“’We’re going to have loads of empty and part-built posh ghost towers,’ he says. ‘They were built as gambling chips for rich overseas investors, but they are no longer interested in the London casino and have moved on.”

Ghost towers: half of new-build luxury London flats fail to sell,” Rupert Neate, The Guardian, January 26, 2018


“According to U.S. group Demographia, Vancouver is the third-least affordable city in the world for a home ….”

Vancouver housing market more unaffordable than New York and London: survey,” Gerry Marr, The Financial Post, January 26, 2016

The Vancouver Model

by Zbigniew

“I think there are people who say the Vancouver model is fine, and then there are others who don’t like the Vancouver model.”

Hon. Mike Farnworth, Minister of Public Safety & Solicitor General


“Teaching Pediatric Procedures: The Vancouver Model for Instructing Seldinger’s Technique of Central Venous Access Via the Femoral Vein”


“In this chapter, we introduce the Vancouver model to tourism infrastructure planning and development. The key characteristics of this model are (1) an emphasis on private sector participation in tourism project development with little or no direct public financial support, (2) the leveraging of tourist amenities and infrastructure through private sector developments, and (3) an emphasis on planning for a liveable region, with particular emphasis on housing.”

Dennis R. Judd, The Infrastructure of Play: Building the Tourist City


“Of course, the Vancouver model lacks the keen public relations touch of the other, more media-centric New Urbanism. But that may come. Within a matter of years, the Vancouver urban prototype will save more energy, house more people, and make finer urban neigh- borhoods than all the overhyped neo-nineteenth-century projects combined. Vancouver is the portal through which the twenty-first-century city is being conceived, for good, and sometimes, for ill.”

Trevor Boddy, “New Urbanism: ‘The Vancouver Model’”


G.L. Homes


“[T]he Vancouver model is socially and politically regressive, promoting a suburban homogeneity, complacency, and torpor that threatens the capacity of cities to function as sites that support vitality, difference, and invention.”

Matthew Soules, “The ‘Liveable’ Suburbanized City: Post-politics and a Vancouver Near You”


“I was advised that the particular style of money laundering in B.C. related to B.C. casinos is being called, quote, ‘the Vancouver model’ in at least one international intelligence community.”

Hon. David Eby, Attorney General

Net Loss City

by Zbigniew

As reported in the Vancouver Sun, census figures for 2016 show 25,502 unoccupied or empty housing units in the City of Vancouver -15 per cent higher than recorded in the previous census of 2011.

According to urban planner and Director of Simon Fraser University’s City Program, the bulk of the empty units were concentrated in Coal Harbour, Marine Gateway and Joyce-Collingwood. Following Vancouver were Surrey (11,195 homes), Burnaby (5,829) and Richmond (4,021).


From “Population Change 2011 – 2016” by CensusMapper (based on Canada Census 2016):

This map shows the relative population change between the 2011 and 2016 censuses in each area.

The population grew in all provinces except in New Brunswick, where population dropped by half a percent.

At the Census District level there is considerable variation, with strongest population gains in urban areas.

Even within Census Metropolitan areas there are parts with population decline, as can be seen well e.g. in Vancouver ….



Every year U-Haul International, Inc. presents “migration trends” reports, based on data collected from more than 21,000 locations in all 50 states and 10 provinces.

City growth rankings are determined by the net of one-way U-Hauls arriving and departing in a calendar year.

According to this information, Kamloops leads the country in growth -that is, it leads in net arrivals. The top-ranking British Columbia cities are, Chilliwack (9th), Vernon (15th), Penticton (18th) and Merritt (24th).

As Gordon Clark underscores: 52.9 per cent of one-way U-Haul trucks leave Vancouver, compared to the 47.1 per cent that arrive.

In other words, we’re a “net loss city.”

Apocalyptic Glimpses II: The Big Ones

by Zbigniew

This is the second in a series of three posts looking at disasters that have befallen Vancouver in fact and fiction. Fire & the Flood considered a veritable buffet of historic catastrophes, from fire and structural failures, to landslides, debris flows and floods. This posting is dedicated to earthquakes and the next will look at fictional representations of disaster.


Earthquakes occur when interruptions in tectonic plate movements produce sudden slips past one another, collisions or divergences, which release energy in the form of seismic waves that causes the ground to move and shake.

The region comprised of the southwest coast of Canada and the northwest of the United States is one of few areas in the world where all three of these types of plate movements take place, resulting in significant earthquake activity. As the geological and historical record makes clear, earthquakes in this area -including “The Big One”- are an existential reality.

The physics of earthquakes is too complicated for a venue dedicated to wiseassery and snark. What follows is an overview of some basic information to inform a consideration of the history and future of Pacific Northwest earthquakes.


There is a confusing array of systems to measure the energy released by an earthquakes. Thankfully, most magnitude scales have been designed to give numerically similar results. Because these measures of magnitude are a base-10 logarithmic scale, an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.0 will be 10 times more powerful than one measuring 5.0, and a magnitude 7.0 quake will release 10 times more energy than a 6.0 and 100 times more energy than a 5.0. The earthquake that struck Japan in 2011 was 10,000 times more powerful than the one that shook the Pacific Northwest on December 29th 2015.

But this is just one consideration. Ultimately, a quake’s destructive capacity depends not only on its strength, but also on location, distance from the epicenter, depth, and duration.

The location below the earth’s surface where the earthquake originates is the hypocenter, while the location directly above it on the surface is the epicenter.



The “Ring of Fire” is an earthquake-prone basin surrounding the Pacific Ocean. Recent years have seen major earthquakes at various points along this ring, including Indonesia, Chile, and Japan. Several significant earthquakes have struck New Zealand in recent years, the latest on November 13th, 2016.

The Cascadia Subduction Zone also forms part of this ring; specifically, it lies west of Vancouver Island and extends from beyond the northern tip of the Island to northern California. The Juan de Fuca plate, which lies about 45 km beneath Victoria and about 70 km beneath Vancouver, is sliding (subducting) beneath the much larger continental plate at rate of about two to five cm/year.


There are three types of earthquakes that have struck -and will again strike- the Pacific Northwest.

The most common is the crustal or shallow crust earthquake . These originate in the North American plate at depths of approximately 30 kilometres. These shallow earthquakes account for the vast majority of the hundreds of small quakes that occur every year within the region.

However, these shallow quakes tend to be more damaging than deeper quakes of comparable magnitude. As seismic waves from deep quakes have to travel farther to the surface and lose energy along the way, small but shallow earthquakes can produce significant damage. This is evident in the August 24th, 2016, earthquake near Accumoli, Italy. The moderate-to-strong quake measured a magnitude of 6.1 but was very shallow, with a hypocentre only five kilometres beneath the surface. The quake produced extensive damage to the brick and mortar structures in the area, essentially levelled the town of Pescara del Tronto, and killed 300 people.

Occasionally, crustal quakes have large magnitudes. Locally they have been recorded up to 7.3.

Crustal quakes tend to produce aftershocks.

The second type is deep, or intraslab, earthquakes. These subcrustal earthquakes are concentrated in two areas within our region: 30 to 40 kilometres below the west coast of Vancouver Island and 50 to 60 kilometres below the Straight of Georgia, within the Juan de Fuca Plate but beneath the North American Plate. The larger earthquakes in the region tend to be intraslab, with a maximum magnitude of about 7. It’s rare for an intraslab quake to produce aftershocks.

A subduction zone or megathrust earthquake is the rarest but by far the most damaging type. At the contact point of two plates, pressures can build and when this becomes excessive can be suddenly discharged. Subduction earthquakes can have magnitudes of 8.0 or larger. The 2011 Tōhoku earthquake of March 11, 2011, had a magnitude of 9.0, enough to move the main Island of Honshu 2.4 metres eastward. The quake caused 16,000 deaths, displaced a quarter of a million people, and produced extensive infrastructure damage. Loses are estimated at US $300 billion. Japan is a leader in earthquake preparedness.

As I write this, Earthquaketrack notes that for a magnitude of 1.5 or greater, across British Columbia there have been 494 earthquakes in the past year, 39 in the past month, 10 in the past seven days, and two earthquakes today. A quake with a magnitude of 3.0 and an epicenter off Port Townsend, Washington, manifested itself around 9:00 AM. (I recall feeling a slight shaking this morning -strong enough to dismiss truck traffic six stories below as the cause.)

While most of these earthquakes are too modest to be felt, on average our region is subjected to a magnitude 5.0 quake every five years, a 6.0 every 20 years, and a magnitude 7.0 every 40 or 50 years.

Subduction quakes appear to strike British Columbia -on average- about every 500 years. Or less. Or more. It’s unclear.

While earthquakes can’t be predicted with any accuracy, the historical record provides a good illustration of the kind of quakes that have hit this area and the damage produced. What follows is an inventory of those local quakes –that is, those tied to the Juan de Fuca plate and the area immediately adjacent on the continental plate. Excluded are several substantial earthquakes recorded near Haida Gwaii and Alaska. This inventory runs from a recent and modest quake -which will serve as a benchmark- to more significant quakes reaching back to 1700.

On December 29th, 2015, at 11:39 PM a 4.7 magnitude earthquake occurred, with an epicenter near Sidney Island off the Saanich Peninsula and a hypocenter about 50 kilometres underneath the Earth’s crust. This moderate intraslab quake was felt from the northern tip of Vancouver Island, south as far as Seattle, and east through the Fraser Valley. Although no damage or injuries were reported, it was the largest earthquake in the region in more than a decade.

Although I was on Bowen Island that night, the situation of my temporary abode on bedrock meant no Hollywood-style ripples disturbing my martini. Of the stories I heard on my return, my mother best quantified the power of the quake. She noted that several pictures were shaken off the walls of her sturdy Vancouver Special. “Moderate,” perhaps, but in her 50 plus years in Vancouver she had never experienced anything similar.

The February 28, 2001, the Nisqually (Ash Wednesday) earthquake near Olympia Washington was also an intraslab earthquake, this one measuring 6.8. Four hundred people were injured, with two indirectly related deaths. Although most of the property damage occurred near the epicenter, damage to the City of Seattle -some 90 kilometres away- totaled $36 million.

The April 29, 1965, Puget Sound earthquake, was an intraslab event measuring 6.7. It caused seven deaths and $12.5 million in damage.

An April 13, 1949, magnitude 7.0 earthquake near Olympia caused eight deaths, many injuries and property damage estimated at upwards of $25 million. At Olympia nearly all large buildings were damaged, water and gas mains were broken, and electric and telegraphic services were interrupted. Near Tacoma railroad bridges were thrown out of line and the quake produced a “tremendous” rockslide.

The 7.3 magnitude quake of June 23, 1946, had its epicenter at Forbidden Plateau near Courtenay. This crustal quake is the largest onshore quake ever recorded in Canada, and was felt from Prince Rupert to Portland. In Vancouver buildings oscillated dramatically, a gas line cracked, war veteran families housed in the Hotel Vancouver fled from an earthquake-induced fire, and the Lions Gate Bridge “swayed like a leaf.” The quake triggered more than 300 landslides, and there were numerous instances of liquefaction -the phenomenon of saturated or partially saturated soil behaving like a liquid– especially along the east coast of central Vancouver Island. Two deaths were attributed to the quake.

On Friday, December 6, 1918, a crustal quake measuring approximately 7.0, with an epicenter near the Estevan Point and Nootka lighthouses and was followed by at least 14 aftershocks. While the quake was felt as far away as Kelowna, no injuries and little damage was reported –in part the result of the limited population residing in the area.

On the afternoon of January 11, 1909, an earthquake measuring 6.0 and centered in the Gulf/San Juan islands was felt throughout the Puget Sound area, including Vancouver, Victoria and Seattle. No damage reported.

On December 15th, 1872, an earthquake with an estimated magnitude of 6.5 to 7.0 struck with an epicenter near Lake Chelan in Western Washington. The quake was felt from British Columbia to Oregon and from the Pacific Ocean to Montana. While the quake occurred in a sparely populated area with few structures, the impact was extensive. Landslides were reported throughout the Cascades, including one that blocked the Columbia River for several hours. Fissures also occurred throughout the area -one produced sulfurous water and another generated a 9-meter-high geyser for several days.


These events pale in the face of an earlier cataclysm.

Late on January 26th, 1700, waves reaching a height of five meters struck the east coast of Japan, destroying homes and other structures, generated fires, flooding fields, and other damage and loss of life. A tsunami, but without an earthquake –at least not a local one.

The oral histories of the First Nations along the British Columbia coast –those that survive the population decimations that came with European contact- refer to a cataclysmic event that occurred many generations previously -histories supported by geological evidence.

In the 1980s and 1990s, scientists found substantial evidence that in the early 1700s coastal lands in the Northwest dropped suddenly and were inundated by tsunami waves and mud. From southern Washington to Northern California, carbon dating of spruce, peat and fossilized plants attributed their sudden death to high waters. Pursuing these and other clues, researchers have determined that at about 9:00 pm on January 26, 1700, a 1,000 km stretch of the Cascadia fault “broke”, producing a subduction earthquake with a magnitude of 8.7 to 9.2. The energy released generated waves that crossed the Pacific and hit Japan nine hours later.

Evidence also suggests that 19 megathrust quakes have struck the British Columbia coast over the last 10,000 years.

Another will strike. The Juan de Fuca and Cascadia plates are currently locked and pressure is building. When the tectonic plates on the Cascadia Subduction Zone suddenly slide past each other, the Cascadia plate could spring 10 to 15 metres westward through four or five minutes of intense shaking.

When exactly this energy will be released is uncertain. The odds of such a quake occurring tomorrow are very low. The chances of a such a quake happening in the next 500 years are very high. Most estimates suggest a 10% to 15% likelihood over the next 50 years, although others rate the danger as high as 33% to 37% for the same period.

If a megathrust doesn’t get us, a crustal or subcrustal might. Natural Resources Canada argues that there is a 30% chance of an earthquake big enough to cause significant property damage hitting southwestern B.C. within the next 50 years.


What kind of damage could we expect form a major earthquake? The immediate impact would be intense shaking and, in some places, liquefaction. The associated impact would include almost all the potential disasters highlighted in the previous post on this subject –structural failure and fire, landslides, and coastal flooding.

During an earthquake buildings of unreinforced masonry can collapse or shower bricks to the ground below, while the older generation of brittle-concrete buildings will not flex but crack or break. Seismic building codes were first introduced in Canada in 1953, with modern standards introduced in 1973. Despite all the subsequent development, 60 per cent of Vancouver’s buildings were constructed before the modern building codes were introduced, including such landmarks as the Sun Tower, St. Paul’s Hospitals, Waterfront Station, and Holy Rosary Cathedral, as well as numerous single room occupancy hotels in the Downtown Eastside, many apartments in the West End, and buildings along Kingsway and Broadway and in the Fraser River industrial and commercial zone. And schools: as of a year ago, 342 British Columbia schools still required seismic upgrades, with 128 yet to participate in the upgrade plan. There are 68 high-risk schools in Vancouver alone.

Awaiting Seismic Upgrades - Metro Vancouver

In one City of Vancouver scenario, a 7.3-magnitude earthquake in the Strait of Georgia is estimated to damage 90,000 buildings in Metro Vancouver, 20,000 of them beyond repair. Despite the benefit of the updated seismic codes, those figures could be conservative.

As a BBC documentary on the potential Pacific Northwest megathrust quake notes, building codes have never been tested by such an event: “The lessons haven’t been learned yet.”

Of the nearly 400,000 buildings destroyed in the 2010 Chile earthquake, most were newer high-rises, buildings designed with fewer and thinner “shear walls” -internal concrete bracing that resists shaking– in order to fit more spots in underground parking garages and create more interior space. Many new high-rises in Vancouver and across North America are built to similar standards. A University of British Columbia Earthquake Lab study found buildings made with six-inch concrete support walls aren’t as resistant to earthquakes as previously believed, despite being fully compliant with building codes.

And how well have those codes been respected? The Lower Mainland’s construction boom has brought with it all kinds of shady dealings, from dirty money to shadow flipping, all in the service of a quick buck. What would prevent an unscrupulous developer -a few of those about- from cashing in by cutting corners? Defraying costs to future generations is the scourge of our times.

Furthermore, the effects of an earthquake will not be evenly distributed. “Seismic microzonation” means that some geographic pockets can be up to five times more prone to shaking, liquefaction and damage. Consider all those towers built on loose Richmond silt, or False Creek infill, exactly the kind topography that experienced the most damage in the 1989 San Francisco earthquake.

Assuming that codes are robust enough and structures are built on solid ground, there are sill issues. No building is earthquake proof, only earthquake resistant –structures are designed to hold together long enough for you to GET OUT.

Unfortunately, if you do manage to escape your luxury 25th floor Coal Harbour condominium (at least no one else will be there to plug up the stairwells) you’ll have to contend with falling glass.

(How much falling glass is uncertain. If I understand correctly, Japanese towers include thin wire mesh embedded in glass panels to limit shattering, while local codes have no such requirement. For what it’s worth, it’s often been said that in the event of a major earthquake downtown Vancouver will be buried in glass.)

Of course, other structures will be affected, too. Skytrain lines and overpasses are vulnerable. While most bridges will simply sway off the sudden application of energy, not all are so resistant. The Patullo Bridge in particular does not meet modern seismic standards and most of Metro Vancouver other bridges were constructed before the introduction of modern seismic codes.

While older wood frame buildings are likely to survive even a strong quake, many run the risk of collapsing chimneys or coming off their foundations to which they may be improperly anchored.

Although the City and region have invested in upgrading the resilience of water and other infrastructure, this process is not complete and there is likely to be extensive disruptions in their carrying capacity.

Severed gas lines and associated fires are likely to be widespread.

A strong quake will probably trigger landslides. Assuming our local damns are not damaged, slides could contaminate our local drinking supplies.

And then there are tsunami. It’s widely assumed that as a megathrust earthquake will take place to the west of Vancouver Island, and that that landmass will act as a shield and spare Vancouver the worst of the resulting flooding.

However, anything is possible given the strength and epicenter of a quake.

On March 27th, 1964, the second largest earthquake ever recorded (9.2) struck off the coast of Alaska. The resulting waves funnelled up the 40 km (25 mile) Alberni Canal and a tsunami struck Port Alberni, lifting houses off foundations and upending cars.

port-alberni-tsunamiVancouver Sun

Regardless, river channels and low lying areas –Richmond, again- are in a hazard zone.

Pacific Northwest Seismic Network

Collapsed buildings, damaged bridges, debris impeding emergency routes, fires, disrupted water supplies, landslides, and coastal flooding are all bad enough, but the worst may come after the shaking has ceased. A 2014 Auditor General’s report states that Emergency Management BC inadequately prepared to manage the consequences of a major earthquake.

Nor are the rest of us, I’ll wager. Just ask family, or a friend, or neighbour if they have an earthquake kit.



Apocalyptic Glimpses: The Fire & the Flood

by Zbigniew

“Most disasters are characteristic rather than accidental features of the places and societies where they occur.”

Kenneth Hewitt


Mike Davis’ Ecology of Fear opens with an impressive inventory of diabolical Los Angeles disasters. Earthquakes, of course, but also tornadoes, floods, drought, fires –both chaparral and urban- mountain lion attacks, killer bees, plague squirrels, “chupacabra,” and –ultimately- real estate speculation.

Davis also considers the fictional destruction of Los Angeles’ in print and film. Sifting 20th century popular culture from the loathsome The Turner Diaries to the ridiculous Independence Day, Davis dutifully tracks the fictional destructive frequency of nuclear attacks, earthquakes, invading hordes, cults, riots, genocide, killer fog, homicidal Bermuda grass and much, much more.

What’s characteristic of Los Angeles disasters?

“The destruction of London –the metropolis most persecuted in fiction between 1885 and 1940- was imagined as a horrifying spectacle, equivalent to the death of Western civilization itself. The obliteration of Los Angeles, by contrast, is often depicted as, or at least secretly experienced as, a victory for civilization.”

In fiction at least, it’s less City of Angels than Gomorrah-on-the-San Andreas. Los Angles gets what it deserves, and no one sheds a tear.

Being both a fringe outpost of the British Empire and a jet-aged suburb cum colony of the Hollywood dream machine, what disasters are characteristic of Vancouver?

Is there a literally or figuratively terminal aspect of the Terminal City? Do fictional representations of Vancouver’s destruction even exist? If there are, what do these say about us?

I searched, and found -too much and too little.

What follows is not a complete inventory of local disasters but -taking my cue from Davis- a consideration of the types of disasters that have struck the Lower Mainland in fact and fiction. The real version occupies this post and the next. A third post will present Vancouver’s imagined destruction.


All large cities are vulnerable to a wide range of hazards both natural and manufactured. But which reflect our local geography and history? Which ones are more likely to occur here? I sought the official view.

While the City notes a number of hazards that could befall Vancouver, it doesn’t distinguish between the potential severity of a tsunami versus a pandemic; so, not very useful.

Curiously, Metro Vancouver does not have a hazard inventory for the Greater Vancouver Regional District –at least not one that I could find. However, it did produce Hazard, Risk and Vulnerability Analysis – Electoral Area A, covering the large swath of unincorporated land from Howe Sound east to Pitt Lake, the university Endowment Lands, UBC, and Barnston Island. To this foundation I add the filtered results of several other municipalities’ assessments. The results are consistently high-risk ratings for the following:

  • Fire (“wildland interface” and structural)
  • Structural failures & accidents
  • Windstorm
  • Landslides, rockslides & “hydrogeomorphic events”
  • Earthquakes
  • Tsunami

The history and likelihood of each of these will be considered in turn, ordered roughly and subjectively from least destructive (to date, and in terms of structural damage, loss of life and injuries) to most potentially disastrous . While tsunamis are inherently connected to earthquakes, they are considered separately.


A major popular and marketed characteristic of Vancouver is the proximity of nature or wildland interface. (Note: “wildland” is a more exact term than “nature,” as it includes bog and woodland, the second growth forest of the north shore, as well as the few and remaining pockets of relatively untouched wilderness.) Sailing, skiing, hiking, biking etc etc are just a few minutes away and watch out! BEAR IN AREA!

And fire. Wildland interfaces are prone to fires.

Burns Bog is one of North America’s largest peat bogs. Access is restricted primarily due to fire risk. Peat bog fires can sink metres under the dry peat, spread out and burn out of sight, even in damp conditions. These underground fires can smoulder right through the winter months.

While Burns Bog is some 5,000 years old, its readily available fire history is remarkably recent. There were fires in 1977, 1990 (twice), 1994, 1996, 2005, 2007, and 2016.

Smoke and ash covered the city of Vancouver in the 1996 fire. Debris reached as far as Nanaimo in the 2005 fire, and firebreaks, dikes, a fleet of water bombers, and eight days were needed to control the blaze.

The 2016 fire was relatively small, but required 80 firefighters, helicopters and water bombers to control.

burns-bog-fire-2016Angela Friday Photography

British Columbia’s wildfires are usually limited to rural areas; however, a July 2015 wildfire crossed into the metropolitan region, and ash was reported falling on buildings and cars, from Horseshoe Bay to Vancouver.

As climate change yields rising temperatures and more frequent drought conditions, and our cordon verte is pushed back and thinned-out by ongoing residential and commercial development -a sort of zoning-induced flora alopecia- peat and wild wildfires will likely occur with greater frequency and intensity. How long before a major bog fire forces us to stay indoors? When will we see the North Shore mountains burning?

Catastrophic structural fire is tightly woven into Vancouver’s DNA, dramatically punctuating the historical record.

On June 13th, 1886, just two months after the city’s incorporation, a brush fire set by CPR employees to clear land for property development to the west of the main settlement was fanned by a strong wind and quickly grew of out of control. Dozens were killed and only a handful of buildings survived.

(If it’s not obvious enough, take note: the eagerness to increase land supply was fueled by a strong wind from the west.)


At 10,500 seats, the Denman Arena, was the second largest auditorium in North America, after Madison Square Gardens –a significant feat for a community of 100,000. Constructed in 1911, the Arena hosted curling, boxing, wrestling, lacrosse, soldiers assembling for deployment in the First World War, political rallies by the likes of William Lyon Mackenzie King and the CCF, auto shows, musical performances, and hockey -both women and men’s leagues. In 1915 the Stanley Cup was paraded under the Arena’s rafters by the victorious Vancouver Millionaires. According to hockey historian Craig Bowlsby, “It was a magnet for entertainment. It was probably the most important cultural center in the city …. It was used for everything.” On August 19th, 1936, fire of mysterious origins destroyed the arena, seven adjacent industrial buildings, two homes and fifty-eight small boats, and claimed two lives.

On July 27, 1938, at 1:45 PM, fire broke out at the north end of the Canadian Pacific Railway’s Pier D, at the foot of Granville Street. In 40 minutes the entire dock was burning. Vancouver Sun: “Flying cinders, bits of blazing debris and ashes were carried on the east wind to Stanley Park and most sections of the West End.”

“Buildings a block away were kept drenched as the intense heat melted roofing material. Railway ties 50 yards from the blazing pier caught fire.”

There were seven injuries.

Source: BC History

Vancouver’s first five-alarm fire, and the largest in the history of the Vancouver Fire Department, took place on June 3rd, 1960, at the BC Forest Products Mill, near Oak and West 6th Avenue. Three hundred and fifty firefighters battled an inferno fueled by 60 kilometre an hour winds. Ten firefighters and three civilians were sent to hospital. Four city blocks were destroyed.

Source: BC History

On Wednesday, March 4th, 2015, at Port Metro Vancouver’s Centerm terminal, a shipping container containing trichloroisocyanuric acid caught fire and burned for more than 24 hours, generating a chlorine-scented white shroud over the east side of the city.

According to the Vancouver Sun, “Police ordered people to leave or stay indoors in a partial evacuation zone that stretched west from Nanaimo to Main streets and south to Hastings Street, and advised anyone north of First Avenue to close their windows.”

As then City Manager Penny Ballem noted, “It was the closest we have come to a major evacuation across our city in many, many years.”

Thousands of containers of hazardous substances pass through the port every year.

port-metro-vancouver-fireNick Procaylo/Postmedia News

While there are many incidents of arson in Vancouver, it’s impossible to say whether these are statistically unusual, as statistics do not appear to be available.

Structural Failures & Accidents

Aside from fire, major structural failures and accidents –to date- have been relatively rare.

On March 6, 1945, the S.S. Greenhill Park, a freighter carrying barrels of alcohol, lumber and 85 tonnes of sodium chlorate, was docked at the CPR’s pier near the present-day Waterfront Station. A fire -apparently resulting from the illicit siphoning of the alcohol- produced three explosions, shattering windows throughout the downtown core. Eight longshoremen were killed and 19 others were injured.

On June 17, 1958, during the construction of what was then known as the Second Narrows Bridge, the structure collapsed, killing 18 men. A scuba diver was also killed in the effort to recover the bodies. The failure was attributed to an error on the part of a junior engineer that underestimated the weight-bearing capacity of a temporary arm supporting the fifth span of the bridge. The engineer was among those killed.

The bridge was renamed the Ironworkers Memorial Second Narrows Crossing in 1994 to recognize those killed during the June 1958 incident, as well as four others that lost their lives during the construction process.

Second Narrows Bridge CollapseThe Canadian Encyclopedia


On April 23, 1988 at the grand opening of a new Save-On-Foods store at the Station Square complex in Burnaby, a 6,400 square foot portion of the roof –which also served as a parking lot- collapsed, sending the parking deck and 20 automobiles crashing into the produce section below. While there were no fatalities, 21 people were treated in hospital. For some time afterward Save-On was popularly known as “Cave-On-Foods.”

In the early morning of April 8, 2015, 2,700 litres of Bunker C fuel oil spilled from the MV Marathassa into English Bay.

A review of the found that the response was delayed for nearly two hours “due to miscommunication, technology woes and confusion over roles and responsibilities between the Canadian Coast Guard and its partners.”

The fuel oil fouled beaches from Stanley Park to West Vancouver, with some reaching New Brighton Park near the Iron Workers Memorial Bridge.

According to the Stanley Park Ecological Society, the intertidal zone surrounding the park supports a food web of bacteria, protozoa, plankton, sponges, worms, seaweeds (including kelp forests), crustaceans, mollusks, fish, river otters, blue herons, eagles, and a wide variety of shore birds and sea ducks. Very heavy oils like Bunker C can persist in the environment for months or even years. In the short term these oils smother marine organisms. In the long-term may cause tumours and chronic health problems in some organisms.

Despite an independent review’s 25 recommendations to improve the response to such spills, concerns remain that there are serious gaps in preparedness.

At the same time, the proposed expansion of the Kinder Morgan (Trans Mountain) Pipeline would triple the amount of oil transported through Burrard Inlet from the Westbridge Marine Terminal in Burnaby. This oil is currently comprised of conventional crude and diluted oil sands bitumen.

The “English Bay Oil Spill Debrief and Tanker Scenario Planning Workshop,” considers the impact of a 16,000 m3 diluted bitumen spill at First Narrows. While this volume is almost 6,000 times the Marathassa spill, it represents only one-third the carrying capacity of an oil tanker. Such a spill would create a vapour cloud or plume that could pose significant risk to the health and safety of first responders and the public. Consider the 2010 Kalamazoo River, Michigan, diluted bitumen oil spill of 4,200 m3, which resulted in approximately 150 hospital visits for neurological, cardiovascular, dermal, ocular, renal, and respiratory problems.

In order to better help you imagine such a disaster, here are two scenarios prepared by Genwest Systems for the cities of Vancouver and Burnaby and the Tsleil-Waututh:


Of course spills of these magnitudes would generate a significant negative impact to the shoreline habitat and wildlife, as well as the overall ecological health of the area.


“Every once in a while … a Pacific Northwest storm is seeded by a tropical storm from across the Pacific, grows off the California or Oregon Coast, and makes landfall on the North American West Coast. Such was the case in October 1962 when the remnants of Typhoon Freda went extratropical and delivered a knockout blow from northern California to southwestern British Columbia. Canadians refer to the storm as Typhoon Freda, after its previous tropical incarnation. For those in Oregon and Washington, it is the Columbus Day Storm, as it struck on that US holiday, or the Big Blow.”

Typhoon Freda: The Columbus Day Storm

Freda is the benchmark storm against which all other are measured. The typhoon blew through Vancouver at 90 km per hour, with gusts of up to 145 km per hour. Across the region trees “’snapped like twigs” and “fell like matchsticks.” Stanley Park lost 3,000 trees, including 500-year-old-cedars -20 percent of its old growth. In the city, shattered glass was the primary hazard, produced by flying debris or the wind itself. Freda killed seven people, caused 640 million (current) dollars in damage, and left residents from Vancouver to Hope without power.

On December 14th and 15th, 2006, a windstorm -unnamed here but known as the Hanukkah Eve Wind Storm in Washington State- hit Vancouver with winds reaching 120 km per hour. In Stanley Park 41 hectares -10,000 trees- were flattened, particularly near Prospect Point. The seawall suffered significant damage and was closed.


With gusts up to 90 km/hour, the windstorm of August 29, 2015 was less powerful than its 2006 incarnation but produced considerably more damage. After an exceptionally dry summer that yielded a Level 4 drought rating (the highest category) across the south coast and Vancouver Island, tree route systems were severely weakened and toppling was much more prevalent than would have been the case with normal precipitation. According to BC Hydro, the storm was “the single largest outage event” in the utility’s history, and left 710,000 households -half of its customers- without power.

Windstorm Vancouver trees downGlobal News

A study considering the vulnerability of the power grid to windstorms notes a potential for widespread grid damage for wind speeds approaching the 1962 windstorm.

Landslides, Rockslides & Hydrogeomorphic Events

“A great diversity of landslide types occur in the Vancouver region in response to high relief, steep slopes, heavy rainfall, seismicity, and a variety of landslide-prone materials. Rockfalls and small rock avalanches (less than a million cubic metres) are a significant hazard to land use development but their biggest impact has been on the transportation network and the Fraser River fishery. The deposits of larger rock avalanches (greater than a million cubic metres) are common throughout the region and have occurred along major transportation routes in the Fraser Valley and the Squamish-Pemberton corridor in the last 10,000 years …. Channelized debris flows within steep mountain watersheds triggered by heavy rains occur throughout the region …. The expansion of development in the Vancouver region is increasing the vulnerability of communities, transportation routes, the resource base to landslides.”

“Landslides in the Vancouver-Fraser Valley-Whistler region,” S.G. Evans and K.W. Savigny

Of all the potential disasters that can strike locally, landslides and their kin are the most pervasive and specifically reflect our local topography, geology, climate and building activity.

Three distinct physical events occur during a landslide: the initial slope failure, the subsequent transport of materials, and their final deposition. This activity is usually caused by one or some of the following: undercutting of a slope by water causing erosion (eg. heavy rains), human activity too close to the slope, shocks or vibrations caused by mining, construction or nature, and/or the loading of additional weight on to the upper portion of a slope.

types-of-movement“Landslide Risk Management: Partial Risk Analysis for known Landslide Hazard Areas” was a public presentation by BGC Engineering Inc. for the City of North Vancouver identifies seven creeks on the North Shore rated “very high” for landslide risk. On average one landslide occurs every year, usually between November and February. Past consequences have included injuries, fatalities, damage to property and infrastructure, and environmental impacts.

north-vancouver-natural-hazards-areaEnvironmental Science, Simon Fraser University

A particular weak spot is the Berkley-Riverside Escarpment, where at least six extremely rapid landslides have been triggered by heavy rainfall since 1972. The most recent slide, in January 2005, swept two houses down an embankment and resulted in one serious injury and one fatality. The house at 2175 Berkley Avenue was assessed as being at low risk of major instability.

In November of 2006 heavy rainfall caused landslides into the Capilano and Seymour water reservoirs, affecting a million people in Greater Vancouver. The resulting boil water advisory –which lasted 12 days- forced supermarkets and restaurants to stop selling produce, coffee shops to close, and fistfights over depleted supplies of bottled water.

On December 7, 2014, a large rockslide in the Seymour Canyon dumped 50,000 cubic meters of rock into Seymour River, at a rapid known as Mosh Pit. The boulder debris dammed the river and formed a lake.

Distinct from land and rock slides are hydrogeomorphic events, where mountain streams flowing down steep hillsides suffer surging flows of water, either clear (clear water floods), heavily charged with debris (debris floods), carrying large amounts of organic debris (debris torrents), or very fine materials (mudflows).

debris-flowGeography, University of Victoria

In the fall of 1921, and following days of very heavy rain, a substantial lake had formed behind a damn of logs and rocks above Britannia Beach. On the evening of October 28, the barrier gave way, unleashing a wall of water, logs and stone, killing 37 people and destroying half of the town’s homes.

When next you drive the Sea-to-Sky Highway, take note of the channelized debris flow mitigative structures -the concrete channels framing mountain streams. The 26 stream basins on this route produced more than 14 landslides in the 25 years up to 1984. Between 1981 and 1984 there were five events that resulted in 12 deaths, and the destruction or damage of nine bridges and six houses.

lions-bay-debris-flowGeography, University of Victoria

The speed at which these events occur means that they often go visually unrecorded. The details regarding the following are sparse, but it does capture a coastal BC debris slide for a hypothetically fair comparison:


Residential construction on steep slopes continues unabated on the North Shore, from Lions Bay to West Vancouver to Anmore.

The Fraser River is the local focus for clear water floods. The most significant Fraser River flood on record occurred in May, 1894, when rapid snowmelt caused a significant rise in river levels and flooding from Harrison to Richmond. The 1948 flood was much less dramatic, but due to population growth and development caused the evacuation of 16,000 people, and 2,000 homes damaged or destroyed.

The Fraser Basin currently maintains 600 km of dikes, 400 floodboxes and 100 pump stations to protect communities and infrastructure from flooding; however, land use planning is critical to reducing risks, and there is much pressure for continued development in floodplain areas.

It is estimated that a reoccurrence of the 1894 flood could cause “approximately $1 billion in economic damages to City Chilliwack and several billion in economic damages to the City of Richmond.”

lower-fraser-floodplain Fraser Basin Council

 Continues in Apocalyptic Glimpses: The Big One & More

Eviction by Demolition

by Zbigniew

5025 Imperial Street, Burnaby

Imperial Squat

Imperial Squat 2

Imperial Squat 3

Imperial Squat Corrigan


Demovictions 2

Demovictions 3

Imperial Squat Development Map

And just a few metres away:

Imperial Squat Epilogue

Young, Diverse, Isolated

by Zbigniew

“The Vancouver Foundation thinktank asked community leaders and charities to identify the biggest issues facing Vancouverites and were told it wasn’t homelessness or poverty; it was isolation. Of 4,000 people from 80-odd ethnic groups who were polled, one third of respondents found it hard to make friends – something I discovered firsthand when I spent a rainy, grey winter working in Vancouver, wandering Stanley Park alone with my dog at weekends and sitting in crowded cafes by myself. In this young, diverse city, the newly arrived struggle most: among people who had been in Canada for five years or less, almost half (42%) had just two close friends.”

“Whats the world’s loneliest city?” Craille Maquire Gillies, The Guardian, April 7, 2016

Things Are Safer

by Zbigniew

“A mild form of future shock is affecting the citizens of Vancouver. Pleasant homes are suddenly knocked down and carted away in trucks, to be replaced by high rises. Boutiques and cafés open continuously in Gastown, the former Skid Road now purged and prettified by real estate interests. There is a sense of bustle. Money is available for the superfluous or for a new kind of investment, as word has got around that art, THINGS maybe, are safer than stocks.”

Joan Lowndes, “New Galleries in Vancouver (1972),” artscanada, early autumn 1972 pg.101. (See Michael Tuner’s Websit for the full article)

Dream Kitsch

by Zbigniew

East Van Attenuated

My thinking about art and life comes largely out of growing up in a quiet but skittish Vancouver, which has since transmogrified into something I barely recognize as my own. An immense influx of capital has transformed the city into a spectacle that engenders in its visitors feelings akin to the discovery of the secret of poetry, unaware that it is misrecognition of depth for surfaces. Vancouver has become adorned in what Walter Benjamin called dream kitsch, ‘the last mask of the banal, the one with which we adorn ourselves, in dream and conversation, so as to take in the energies of an outlived world of things.’ It is not just things that become outlived but the people for whom the city is no longer a possibility.”

“Ken Lum on Canada vs. the USA”, Ken Lum, Canadian Art


by Zbigniew


“The World Soundscape Project (WSP) was established as an educational and research group by R. Murray Schafer at Simon Fraser University during the late 1960s and early 1970s. It grew out of Schafer’s initial attempt to draw attention to the sonic environment through a course in noise pollution, as well as from his personal distaste for the more raucous aspects of Vancouver’s rapidly changing soundscape.

“The project initiated the modern study of Acoustic Ecology. Its ultimate goal is ‘to find solutions for an ecologically balanced soundscape where the relationship between the human community and its sonic environment is in harmony.'”

The World Soundscape Project


Excerpt from “harsh noise” performer The Rita’s response to Pietro Sammarco’s Vancouver Noise & the Harmoniously Productive City, December 9th, 2015: